PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 20 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 19 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 18 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 16 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
696 picks · 501 bans
Puck
494 picks · 984 bans
Dawnbreaker
406 picks · 517 bans
Snapfire
384 picks · 196 bans
Marci
373 picks · 682 bans
Winter Wyvern
321 picks · 303 bans
Mars
314 picks · 529 bans
Monkey King
303 picks · 629 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% OG
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:10
Entity 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:27.
Game 2prediction correct32:28
Entity 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:20.
Game 3prediction correct27:11
Entity 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3