FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
Entitywin 3:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 3:1
OGloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 32 games
Rubicksignature
Ari · 28 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 25 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
468 picks · 220 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 646 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 368 bans
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 565 bans
Batrider
396 picks · 705 bans
Rubick
368 picks · 159 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 938 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total58% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
Entity 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:11.
Game 2prediction correct45:17
Entity 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 37:49.
Game 3prediction correct14:29
Entity 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:00.
Game 4prediction correct29:2
Entity 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 16:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 58%
Series resultEntity 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game4 of 4