Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 32 games
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 21 game
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 17 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 16 games
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
750 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1005 bans
Tiny
407 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 949 bans
Doom
391 picks · 618 bans
Undying
387 picks · 604 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:12
Entity 59%PSG Quest 41%
The model gave 59% on Entity — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 33:57.
Game 2prediction missed25:18
Entity 59%PSG Quest 41%
The model gave 59% on Entity — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 59%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2