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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 21 game
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 19 games
63%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 679 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
419 picks · 195 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 541 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 426 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 578 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 169 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 642 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 844 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:22
Entity 60%PSG Quest 40%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 49:29.
Game 2prediction missed36:16
Entity 60%PSG Quest 40%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 46:34.
Game 3prediction missed37:31
Entity 60%PSG Quest 40%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 1:01:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 60%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3