PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
425 picks · 694 bans
Mars
404 picks · 653 bans
Techies
402 picks · 324 bans
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
Tiny
385 picks · 477 bans
Batrider
383 picks · 847 bans
Vengeful Spirit
359 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
354 picks · 166 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:11
Entity 75%Rest Farmers 25%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 33:32.
Game 2prediction missed24:44
Entity 75%Rest Farmers 25%
The model gave 75% on Entity — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 43:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 75%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2