ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 31 game
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 17 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
738 picks · 558 bans
Puck
525 picks · 1052 bans
Dawnbreaker
458 picks · 595 bans
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
362 picks · 394 bans
Zeus
322 picks · 368 bans
Razor
317 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength63% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:12
Entity 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:01.
Game 2prediction correct25:41
Entity 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 52:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 61%
Accuracy by game2 of 2