Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Falcons
Marssignature
ATF · 39 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 32 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 790 bans
Batrider
465 picks · 952 bans
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 202 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 610 bans
Techies
448 picks · 345 bans
Mars
444 picks · 701 bans
Rubick
442 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
430 picks · 732 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength67% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:44
Entity 15%Team Falcons 85%
The model gave 85% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:54.
Game 2prediction correct33:14
Entity 15%Team Falcons 85%
The model gave 85% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 85%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2