The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Entitywin 3:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Team Secretloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 14 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 10 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
694 picks · 548 bans
Marci
497 picks · 755 bans
Dawnbreaker
491 picks · 641 bans
Puck
467 picks · 974 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 425 bans
Zeus
320 picks · 399 bans
Razor
297 picks · 540 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total59% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:21
Entity 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 22:23.
Game 2prediction missed9:21
Entity 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:19.
Game 3prediction missed21:16
Entity 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 59%
Series resultEntity 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3