ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Tiny
Timado · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
Banesignature
DuBu · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
Pucksignature
bryle- · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
737 picks · 570 bans
Puck
525 picks · 1061 bans
Dawnbreaker
464 picks · 610 bans
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 195 bans
Winter Wyvern
365 picks · 404 bans
Zeus
324 picks · 372 bans
Razor
322 picks · 629 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:5
Entity 53%TSM 47%
The model gave 53% on Entity — the game was taken by TSM in 21:44.
Game 2prediction missed10:35
Entity 53%TSM 47%
The model gave 53% on Entity — the game was taken by TSM in 29:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 53%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2