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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 11 games
73%
Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 11 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Topson · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 10 games
50%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 9 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
346 picks · 514 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
299 picks · 438 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
292 picks · 257 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
291 picks · 212 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 457 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
261 picks · 413 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
256 picks · 749 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
256 picks · 371 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:44
Entity 31%Tundra Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:14.
Game 2prediction correct27:10
Entity 31%Tundra Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2