PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 20 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 18 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 15 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 13 games
Aim Possible
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 6 games
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
zenica · 5 games
Ancient Apparition
Garbat1y · 4 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 3 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
371 picks · 333 bans
Puck
339 picks · 846 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 163 bans
Pugna
293 picks · 332 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 788 bans
Warlock
276 picks · 124 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 686 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 31%
Hero pool strength58% eSpoiled
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:24
eSpoiled 66%Aim Possible 34%
The model gave 66% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 51:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Dazzlezenica
Keeper of the LightDifference
JakiroGarbat1y
SnapfireWein
Elder Titanasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct25:11
eSpoiled 64%Aim Possible 36%
The model gave 64% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Dawnbreakerzenica
SnapfireWein
WarlockGarbat1y
SlardarDifference
Enchantressasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 72%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2