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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bikini Bottomwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Wein · 24 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 19 games
42%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 18 games
44%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 17 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 15 games
73%

Bikini Bottom

Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
aik · 4 games
75%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
QBFY · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ряф^^ · 3 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
rincyq · 2 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyer
ряф^^ · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
381 picks · 347 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 861 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 169 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
294 picks · 339 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 792 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 126 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 689 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
eSpoiled 70%Bikini Bottom 30%
The model gave 70% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Game 2prediction missed
eSpoiled 70%Bikini Bottom 30%
The model gave 70% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom.
Game 3prediction missed
eSpoiled 70%Bikini Bottom 30%
The model gave 70% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom.
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 70%
Series resultBikini Bottom 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3