FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
Tusk
Wein · 12 games
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 11 games
Pugna
asdekor_r · 11 games
Kalmychata
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 16 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 15 games
Leshrac
Ethereal · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 13 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
293 picks · 675 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 108 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 257 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 628 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 527 bans
Marci
244 picks · 548 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total76% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:35
eSpoiled 36%Kalmychata 64%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 45:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracDifference
SpectreWoE
Troll Warlordssnovv1
EarthshakerEthereal
TinyWein
DawnbreakerAnkou
Snapfireasdekor_r
WarlockHtrd
47% · 21 game
Grimstrokeraregods
Game 2prediction missed25:14
eSpoiled 24%Kalmychata 76%
The model gave 76% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 32:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 76%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2