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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 17 games
59%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 15 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
asdekor_r · 13 games
31%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
314 picks · 781 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
313 picks · 290 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 736 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
269 picks · 300 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
264 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
260 picks · 758 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
259 picks · 123 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total63% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:29
eSpoiled 37%Kalmychata 63%
The model gave 63% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 38:05.
Game 2prediction correct12:32
eSpoiled 37%Kalmychata 63%
The model gave 63% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 30:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 63%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2