European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Level UPloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 13 games
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
Tusk
Wein · 12 games
Pugna
asdekor_r · 11 games
Level UP
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 21 game
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 15 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 14 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
Tiny
MaTson · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
292 picks · 687 bans
Shadow Shaman
291 picks · 186 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 643 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 251 bans
Dark Willow
253 picks · 108 bans
Disruptor
251 picks · 213 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 537 bans
Marci
243 picks · 580 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
eSpoiled 62%Level UP 38%
The model gave 62% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 62%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1