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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 7 games
57%
Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 7 games
29%
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Sven
Sven
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
33%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 28 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 20 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 15 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 12 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 11 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 608 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
473 picks · 239 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
372 picks · 789 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 519 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
346 picks · 795 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 301 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
326 picks · 365 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total67% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
eSpoiled 39%Runa Team 61%
The model gave 61% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonssnovv1
47% · 83 games50% · 97 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Windranger
WindrangerWein
44% · 215 games52% · 106 games
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Templar Assassin
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
49% · 405 games59% · 160 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
49% · 148 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
55% · 192 games
TuskHduo
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct4:18
eSpoiled 41%Runa Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 23:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenssnovv1
51% · 136 games58% · 98 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
49% · 188 games43% · 196 games
TinyShigetsu
Tiny
Riki
RikiWein
52% · 89 games56% · 31 game
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
47% · 65 games
Shadow Shamanqueezy
Shadow Shaman
43% · 23 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 67%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2