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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 17 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 16 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 15 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
asdekor_r · 13 games
31%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 33 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 30 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 29 games
66%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 28 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 24 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
312 picks · 780 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
311 picks · 287 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 731 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
267 picks · 300 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
264 picks · 250 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
259 picks · 751 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
257 picks · 119 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total66% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:25
eSpoiled 44%Runa Team 56%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordssnovv1
56% · 59 games52% · 69 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
44% · 100 games46% · 75 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
50% · 162 games51% · 79 games
MarciAlberkaaa
Marci
Elder Titan
Elder Titanasdekor_r
52% · 78 games50% · 101 game
Lionqueezy
Lion
51% · 75 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct20:36
eSpoiled 43%Runa Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursassnovv1
52% · 140 games51% · 104 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
46% · 272 games53% · 182 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
50% · 204 games53% · 140 games
EarthshakerAlberkaaa
Earthshaker
Elder Titan
Elder Titanasdekor_r
52% · 94 games49% · 147 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
44% · 137 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct10:16
eSpoiled 42%Runa Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetssnovv1
51% · 241 game55% · 185 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
49% · 361 game50% · 246 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorWein
50% · 163 games52% · 136 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Elder Titan
Elder Titanasdekor_r
51% · 111 games47% · 185 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
46% · 124 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 66%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3