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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Teawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Wein · 22 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 20 games
60%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 19 games
42%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 15 games
73%

Team Tea

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 3 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%
Slardar
Slardar
Cloud · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 3 games
33%
Chen
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Worick · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
407 picks · 367 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
361 picks · 188 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 883 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
307 picks · 354 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 245 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 808 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 691 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% eSpoiled
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
eSpoiled 44%Team Tea 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea.
Game 2prediction correct
eSpoiled 44%Team Tea 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 56%
Series resultTeam Tea 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2