ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AcatSukiloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
No games played over 6 months.
AcatSuki
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
182 picks · 176 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
172 picks · 71 bans
Sven
169 picks · 246 bans
Earthshaker
168 picks · 166 bans
Earth Spirit
149 picks · 241 bans
Phoenix
149 picks · 201 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:22
Estar Backs 60%AcatSuki 40%
The model gave 60% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 41:18.
Game 2prediction correct36:18
Estar Backs 60%AcatSuki 40%
The model gave 60% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 40:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 60%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2