ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Muertaoften banned
Michael · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
Gyrocopter
Mnz · 3 games
Spectreoften banned
Mnz · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
StingeR · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 506 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 434 bans
Lion
283 picks · 245 bans
Vengeful Spirit
278 picks · 198 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 357 bans
Magnus
254 picks · 401 bans
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 735 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:30
Estar Backs 50%beastcoast 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 50:08.
Game 2prediction correct11:37
Estar Backs 50%beastcoast 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:39.
Game 3prediction correct32:27
Estar Backs 50%beastcoast 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 54:24.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 50%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3