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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Michael · 7 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mnz · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 3 games
100%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Mnz · 3 games
67%

BOOM Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
38%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 7 games
29%
Luna
Luna
Pakazs · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Panda · 5 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 514 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
294 picks · 432 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
286 picks · 249 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
286 picks · 208 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 456 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
256 picks · 408 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 365 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 743 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:9
Estar Backs 43%BOOM Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaParker
45% · 72 games50% · 158 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
53% · 149 games48% · 130 games
WindrangerILICH-
Windranger
Techies
TechiesMichael
53% · 295 games50% · 228 games
BatriderPanda
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct19:28
Estar Backs 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
39% · 36 games59% · 50 games
Troll WarlordPakazs
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
51% · 130 games48% · 152 games
MagnusILICH-
Magnus
Techies
TechiesMichael
49% · 152 games51% · 116 games
PhoenixPanda
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct11:29
Estar Backs 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerParker
49% · 49 games52% · 70 games
AlchemistPakazs
Alchemist
Kunkka
KunkkaFrank
51% · 118 games53% · 105 games
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMichael
52% · 151 game45% · 143 games
PhoenixPanda
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 62%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3