DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BTC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 11 games
Jakiro
Accel · 7 games
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 6 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Omniknightoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
Tiny
payk · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
BTC Gaming
Disruptor
Prada · 8 games
Ringmaster
Mjz · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Jakiro
Prada · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Snapfire
Mjz · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
616 picks · 576 bans
Tiny
512 picks · 406 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
451 picks · 506 bans
Hoodwink
444 picks · 218 bans
Warlock
405 picks · 251 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1034 bans
Puck
385 picks · 889 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% BTC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:14
Estar Backs 60%BTC Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidpayk
RubickAlone
TuskYadomi
AlchemistMnz
50% · 10 games
TechiesMjz
44% · 12 games
LichPrada
Game 2prediction correct44:30
Estar Backs 57%BTC Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 48:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinypayk
LunaMnz
JakiroYadomi
PangolierAlone
52% · 240 games
DisruptorPrada
54% · 255 games
HoodwinkMjz
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 65%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2