ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Disruptor
Accel · 9 games
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 4 games
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
Snapfire
Michael · 4 games
Tusk
Accel · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 3 games
chandogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
555 picks · 738 bans
Tusk
496 picks · 353 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 544 bans
Shadow Demon
378 picks · 635 bans
Gyrocopter
365 picks · 546 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 167 bans
Snapfire
354 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% chandogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:33
Estar Backs 58%chandogs 42%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 44:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendbsK7-
GyrocopterArgius
Treant ProtectorAccel
Kunkkamini-`
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Estar Backs 57%chandogs 43%
The model gave 57% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladebsK7-
MuertaArgius
Treant ProtectorAccel
Shadow Fiendmini-`
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 63%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2