DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EEHOMEsaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Disruptor
Accel · 6 games
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
Snapfire
Michael · 4 games
Tusk
Accel · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
EHOMEsa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 670 bans
Tusk
506 picks · 335 bans
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 660 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 529 bans
Snapfire
424 picks · 150 bans
Hoodwink
405 picks · 195 bans
Mars
374 picks · 516 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% EHOMEsa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Estar Backs 73%EHOMEsa 27%
The model gave 73% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Game 2prediction correct
Estar Backs 73%EHOMEsa 27%
The model gave 73% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 73%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2