PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 1:3series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:3
LFLooking for Orgwin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Prada · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Prada · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Frank · 2 games
Muerta
Michael · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Looking for Org
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
payk · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
Matthew · 9 games
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Vitaly · 7 games
Ogre Magi
Yadomi · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
548 picks · 764 bans
Clockwerk
513 picks · 582 bans
Batrider
501 picks · 621 bans
Tiny
498 picks · 587 bans
Muerta
489 picks · 415 bans
Gyrocopter
455 picks · 807 bans
Magnus
453 picks · 1000 bans
Pangolier
407 picks · 626 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Estar Backs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Estar Backs 62%Looking for Org 38%
The model gave 62% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Looking for Org.
Game 2prediction correct
Estar Backs 62%Looking for Org 38%
The model gave 62% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Game 3prediction missed
Estar Backs 62%Looking for Org 38%
The model gave 62% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Looking for Org.
Game 4prediction missed
Estar Backs 62%Looking for Org 38%
The model gave 62% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Looking for Org.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 62%
Series resultLooking for Org 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4