The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SXSustancia Xwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Doomoften banned
Frank · 4 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
Chen
Prada · 3 games
Enchantress
Prada · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
Muerta
Michael · 3 games
Riki
Michael · 3 games
Sustancia X
Bristlebackoften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Zeus
Pamplona · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Pamplona · 1 game
Clockwerk
555k · 1 game
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 1 game
Earthshaker
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
480 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
472 picks · 550 bans
Ringmaster
444 picks · 226 bans
Terrorblade
348 picks · 680 bans
Storm Spirit
310 picks · 462 bans
Ancient Apparition
298 picks · 694 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 244 bans
Windranger
287 picks · 86 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength65% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:34
Estar Backs 69%Sustancia X 31%
The model gave 69% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Sustancia X in 45:11.
Game 2prediction missed13:35
Estar Backs 61%Sustancia X 39%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Sustancia X in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusabsK7-
Clockwerk555k
Shadow ShamanPrada
JakiroPamplona
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 69%
Series resultSustancia X 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2