Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 11 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 10 games
Jakiro
Accel · 8 games
Tiny
payk · 6 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
Gyrocopter
bsK7- · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
payk · 3 games
Team DK
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
587 picks · 358 bans
Phoenix
487 picks · 578 bans
Rubick
474 picks · 253 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
395 picks · 546 bans
Puck
335 picks · 899 bans
Beastmaster
327 picks · 831 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 466 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team DK
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:1
Estar Backs 69%Team DK 31%
The model gave 69% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 17:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaParker
Treant ProtectorYor
Beastmasterpayk
ClockwerkZxca
JakiroYadomi
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Estar Backs 73%Team DK 27%
The model gave 73% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Team DK in 29:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidParker
LargoYor
Axepayk
RubickZxca
EnchantressYadomi
Game 3prediction correct0:0
Estar Backs 72%Team DK 28%
The model gave 72% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendParker
RingmasterZxca
Doompayk
BaneYor
Treant ProtectorYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 87%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3