Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 1:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4 Zoomerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Lion
YamSun · 8 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Mirana
FrancisLee · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
EternaLEnVy · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 3 games
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 1006 bans
Mars
373 picks · 593 bans
Lion
358 picks · 184 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 362 bans
Void Spirit
327 picks · 510 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 689 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 227 bans
Earth Spirit
257 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:42
Eternity 21%4 Zoomers 79%
The model gave 79% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by Eternity in 52:54.
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Eternity 21%4 Zoomers 79%
The model gave 79% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 30:06.
Game 3prediction correct28:12
Eternity 21%4 Zoomers 79%
The model gave 79% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 32:32.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 79%
Series result4 Zoomers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3