Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
Eternitywin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
5ManMidasloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Bane
Jubei · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
Disruptor
Jubei · 7 games
Lunaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Lion
Cys · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Rises · 4 games
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
429 picks · 271 bans
Mars
413 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
365 picks · 422 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 690 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 445 bans
Sand King
299 picks · 401 bans
Weaver
266 picks · 313 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:41
Eternity 52%5ManMidas 48%
The model gave 52% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 54:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 52%
Series resultEternity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1