Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 5 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 4 games
Jakiro
rayy · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Cys · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Jubei · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
high_shaggy · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
P1 · 3 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 433 bans
Mars
485 picks · 689 bans
Bane
453 picks · 294 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 533 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 616 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 606 bans
Sand King
374 picks · 536 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% KBU.US
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:32
Eternity 43%KBU.US 57%
The model gave 57% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 39:57.
Game 2prediction correct35:41
Eternity 43%KBU.US 57%
The model gave 57% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 1:07:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 57%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2