Eternity vs Penguins Squad — prediction DPC2S1САВД · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

Eternityloss 0:2

series probability

49%51%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Penguins Squadwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eternity

Vengeful Spirit

rayy · 2 games

Death Prophetoften banned

islA · 1 game

Snapfire

Moonlight · 1 game

Tiny

Moonlight · 1 game

Visageoften banned

islA · 1 game

Penguins Squad

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tusk

413 picks · 417 bans

54%

Tiny

393 picks · 378 bans

50%

Rubick

388 picks · 264 bans

56%

Mirana

300 picks · 309 bans

52%

Treant Protector

257 picks · 303 bans

56%

Snapfire

242 picks · 125 bans

48%

Crystal Maiden

212 picks · 152 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

206 picks · 570 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength56% Penguins Squad

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total51% Penguins Squad

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct15:36

Eternity 48%Penguins Squad 52%

The model gave 52% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 31:21.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo