DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionEETHwin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
3xOloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ETH
No games played over 6 months.
3xO
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
272 picks · 447 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 390 bans
Centaur Warrunner
241 picks · 327 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
216 picks · 204 bans
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 488 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% ETH
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% ETH
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:2
ETH 52%3xO 48%
The model gave 52% on ETH — the game was taken by ETH in 14:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteETH · 52%
Series resultETH 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1