Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Euronics Gamingloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CHILLAXwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Euronics Gaming
Spirit Breaker
Qupe · 4 games
Dark Willow
Qupe · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Focus · 3 games
Viperoften banned
Mo13ei · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Focus · 2 games
Rubick
Qupe · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
268 picks · 348 bans
Tidehunter
256 picks · 390 bans
Monkey King
252 picks · 589 bans
Lion
225 picks · 102 bans
Bane
221 picks · 146 bans
Void Spirit
220 picks · 250 bans
Lina
216 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Euronics Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Euronics Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:42
Euronics Gaming 59%CHILLAX 41%
The model gave 59% on Euronics Gaming — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 27:39.
Game 2prediction correct39:14
Euronics Gaming 59%CHILLAX 41%
The model gave 59% on Euronics Gaming — the game was taken by Euronics Gaming in 29:02.
Game 3prediction missed35:46
Euronics Gaming 59%CHILLAX 41%
The model gave 59% on Euronics Gaming — the game was taken by CHILLAX in 46:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteEuronics Gaming · 59%
Series resultCHILLAX 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3