Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 4 games
Rubick
Thiolicor · 4 games
Tusk
Thiolicor · 4 games
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
435 picks · 984 bans
Void Spirit
409 picks · 570 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 708 bans
Mars
350 picks · 586 bans
Earth Spirit
309 picks · 303 bans
Grimstroke
306 picks · 290 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 206 bans
Lion
254 picks · 138 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 59%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect