Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Iooften banned
KJ · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 9 games
Mirana
Thiolicor · 8 games
Svensignature
Costabile · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 6 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Tavo · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
Costabile · 6 games
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
376 picks · 274 bans
Mars
371 picks · 538 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 194 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 717 bans
Queen of Pain
271 picks · 336 bans
Ember Spirit
239 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 157 bans
Io
226 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
Evil Geniuses 54%4 Zoomers 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 35:36.
Game 2prediction missed19:45
Evil Geniuses 54%4 Zoomers 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 50:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 54%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2