Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 9 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 7 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 7 games
Bane
Wij · 6 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 6 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
475 picks · 277 bans
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 514 bans
Weaver
359 picks · 476 bans
Death Prophet
312 picks · 491 bans
Kunkka
291 picks · 519 bans
Grimstroke
273 picks · 190 bans
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 350 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:32
Evil Geniuses 65%4 Zoomers 35%
The model gave 65% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 31:41.
Game 2prediction missed15:20
Evil Geniuses 65%4 Zoomers 35%
The model gave 65% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 29:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 65%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2