The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Allianceloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 10 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 10 games
Svensignature
Costabile · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
306 picks · 178 bans
Mars
283 picks · 402 bans
Lina
281 picks · 539 bans
Hoodwink
263 picks · 90 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 375 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 260 bans
Luna
227 picks · 323 bans
Tidehunter
222 picks · 376 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:29
Evil Geniuses 63%Alliance 37%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Alliance in 29:46.
Game 2prediction missed22:14
Evil Geniuses 63%Alliance 37%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Alliance in 31:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 63%
Accuracy by game0 of 2