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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mirana
Mirana
Thiolicor · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Tavo · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 9 games
33%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 8 games
50%

Arkosh Gaming

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aui_2000 · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
Aui_2000 · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 441 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
268 picks · 405 bans
44%
Monkey King
Monkey King
267 picks · 676 bans
60%
Bane
Bane
266 picks · 201 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
245 picks · 495 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
229 picks · 132 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
215 picks · 252 bans
44%
Lina
Lina
211 picks · 477 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 17%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:23
Evil Geniuses 87%Arkosh Gaming 13%
The model gave 87% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 41:25.
Game 2prediction missed10:31
Evil Geniuses 87%Arkosh Gaming 13%
The model gave 87% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 23:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 87%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2