Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 13 games
Chen
Wij · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuma · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 7 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
403 picks · 396 bans
Tiny
367 picks · 364 bans
Rubick
355 picks · 243 bans
Mirana
290 picks · 294 bans
Treant Protector
232 picks · 277 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 118 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
195 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 80%
Hero pool strength54% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:28
Evil Geniuses 57%beastcoast 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 42:30.
Game 2prediction missed42:56
Evil Geniuses 57%beastcoast 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 1:00:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 57%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2