ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
BOOM Esports
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 17 games
Weaversignature
Tims · 17 games
Banesignature
Skem · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Marssignature
Fbz · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
461 picks · 625 bans
Bane
450 picks · 284 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 486 bans
Sand King
395 picks · 523 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 780 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 544 bans
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 525 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 65%
Hero pool strength65% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:33
Evil Geniuses 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:40.
Game 2prediction correct25:27
Evil Geniuses 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 56%
Accuracy by game2 of 2