Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
bumble bEE'sloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 2 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 2 games
Axe
Kingrd · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Thiolicor · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Thiolicor · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Costabile · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Costabile · 1 game
bumble bEE's
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
111 picks · 236 bans
Mars
101 picks · 209 bans
Earth Spirit
95 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
84 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
81 picks · 84 bans
Rubick
69 picks · 34 bans
Nyx Assassin
66 picks · 233 bans
Wraith King
66 picks · 68 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Evil Geniuses 59%bumble bEE's 41%
The model gave 59% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 29:43.
Game 2prediction missed15:26
Evil Geniuses 59%bumble bEE's 41%
The model gave 59% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 32:20.
Game 3prediction missed10:30
Evil Geniuses 59%bumble bEE's 41%
The model gave 59% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 44:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 59%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3