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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
bumble bEE'sloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 4 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 4 games
75%

bumble bEE's

Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ryoya · 5 games
60%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
ppd · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ppd · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
416 picks · 945 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
382 picks · 538 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 706 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 553 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
312 picks · 303 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
294 picks · 220 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
279 picks · 153 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 286 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:28
Evil Geniuses 87%bumble bEE's 13%
The model gave 87% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 28:25.
Game 2prediction missed14:22
Evil Geniuses 87%bumble bEE's 13%
The model gave 87% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by bumble bEE's in 38:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 87%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2