The International 10 (2021) · BO1
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Elephantloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 15 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 11 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 10 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Tavo · 9 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
301 picks · 179 bans
Mars
290 picks · 402 bans
Lina
276 picks · 565 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 368 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 253 bans
Hoodwink
243 picks · 89 bans
Tidehunter
241 picks · 410 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:14
Evil Geniuses 72%Elephant 28%
The model gave 72% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Elephant in 39:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 72%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1