Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 2 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 2 games
Axe
Kingrd · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Thiolicor · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Thiolicor · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Costabile · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Costabile · 1 game
Eternity
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 2 games
Earth Spirit
FrancisLee · 1 game
Mirana
FrancisLee · 1 game
Oracle
Jubei · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Ryoya · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
FrancisLee · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 1 game
Rikioften banned
YamSun · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
136 picks · 303 bans
Mars
134 picks · 246 bans
Earth Spirit
119 picks · 98 bans
Void Spirit
115 picks · 169 bans
Phoenix
103 picks · 115 bans
Keeper of the Light
87 picks · 157 bans
Nyx Assassin
85 picks · 304 bans
Rubick
84 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
Evil Geniuses 44%Eternity 56%
The model gave 56% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 28:06.
Game 2prediction correct9:38
Evil Geniuses 44%Eternity 56%
The model gave 56% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 25:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 56%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2