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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eternitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mirana
Mirana
Thiolicor · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Tavo · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 9 games
33%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 8 games
50%

Eternity

Lion
Lion
Jubei · 5 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Jubei · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jubei · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
25%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
FrancisLee · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lil_Nick · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
325 picks · 461 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
273 picks · 209 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
263 picks · 150 bans
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 394 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 700 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
260 picks · 560 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
212 picks · 294 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
211 picks · 98 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 18%
Hero pool strength54% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total91% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:32
Evil Geniuses 91%Eternity 9%
The model gave 91% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Eternity in 44:33.
Game 2prediction missed10:32
Evil Geniuses 91%Eternity 9%
The model gave 91% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Eternity in 30:38.
Game 3prediction missed15:23
Evil Geniuses 91%Eternity 9%
The model gave 91% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Eternity in 30:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 91%
Series resultEternity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3