DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ex-HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 15 games
Rikisignature
Matthew · 15 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
Silencersignature
Panda · 12 games
ex-HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
960 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
580 picks · 927 bans
Tusk
550 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
518 picks · 343 bans
Death Prophet
499 picks · 1093 bans
Clockwerk
468 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength61% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:17
Evil Geniuses 69%ex-HellRaisers 31%
The model gave 69% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 36:47.
Game 2prediction correct33:11
Evil Geniuses 69%ex-HellRaisers 31%
The model gave 69% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 31:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 69%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2