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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
86%
Bane
Banesignature
Wij · 6 games
83%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 4 games
50%

Felt

Axe
Axe
Zore · 10 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 6 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
80%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 454 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
450 picks · 683 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 544 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
395 picks · 283 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 591 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
344 picks · 800 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 549 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:10
Evil Geniuses 68%Felt 32%
The model gave 68% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Felt in 25:56.
Game 2prediction missed8:24
Evil Geniuses 68%Felt 32%
The model gave 68% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Felt in 20:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 68%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2