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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 34 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 30 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 28 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 26 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 25 games
72%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 56 games
73%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 42 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 38 games
68%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 33 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 33 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 32 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 30 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 30 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
672 picks · 458 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
655 picks · 692 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
581 picks · 1125 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
500 picks · 1227 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
496 picks · 1049 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
488 picks · 459 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 728 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
441 picks · 914 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:24
Evil Geniuses 41%Gaimin Gladiators 59%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPakazs
46% · 136 games52% · 302 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
48% · 252 games55% · 107 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierChris Luck
45% · 256 games54% · 140 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressMatthew
49% · 206 games52% · 450 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Undying
UndyingPanda
46% · 254 games51% · 105 games
IoSeleri
Io
Game 2prediction missed24:7
Evil Geniuses 42%Gaimin Gladiators 58%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 27:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarPakazs
57% · 6 games51% · 192 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
48% · 214 games51% · 95 games
Dark SeerAce
Dark Seer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChris Luck
43% · 169 games57% · 134 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Enchantress
EnchantressMatthew
46% · 160 games50% · 120 games
Spirit BreakertOfu
Spirit Breaker
Oracle
OraclePanda
52% · 56 games56% · 64 games
IoSeleri
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2