Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 19 games
Silencersignature
Panda · 19 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
719 picks · 602 bans
Disruptor
557 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1061 bans
Doom
423 picks · 720 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1004 bans
Tiny
388 picks · 369 bans
Mirana
378 picks · 203 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 815 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Evil Geniuses 86%Hokori 14%
The model gave 86% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 22:06.
Game 2prediction correct29:11
Evil Geniuses 86%Hokori 14%
The model gave 86% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 27:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 86%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2