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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Starsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 15 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 13 games
62%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Panda · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 12 games
92%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 11 games
73%

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 10 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4dr · 9 games
67%
Techies
Techiessignature
FCR · 8 games
88%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Kingrd · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
816 picks · 576 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
591 picks · 407 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
481 picks · 773 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
429 picks · 888 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
427 picks · 307 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
374 picks · 284 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total90% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:14
Evil Geniuses 75%Keyd Stars 25%
The model gave 75% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPakazs
46% · 65 games52% · 90 games
Naga SirenCostabile
Naga Siren
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
49% · 216 games46% · 144 games
Puck4dr
Puck
Batrider
BatriderChris Luck
47% · 221 game51% · 111 games
BroodmotherTavo
Broodmother
Riki
RikiMatthew
54% · 124 games56% · 221 game
MiranaKJ
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
55% · 279 games45% · 339 games
RubickKingrd
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Evil Geniuses 75%Keyd Stars 25%
The model gave 75% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 23:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPakazs
49% · 90 games47% · 35 games
AbaddonCostabile
Abaddon
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChris Luck
42% · 140 games50% · 191 game
Primal Beast4dr
Primal Beast
Broodmother
BroodmotherWisper
53% · 182 games51% · 301 game
Death ProphetTavo
Death Prophet
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
44% · 424 games53% · 577 games
TinyKingrd
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanda
52% · 455 games55% · 187 games
DisruptorKJ
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 90%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2